DeSix Probability Trading Protocol Whitepaper

Decentralized Prediction Market Network Based on AMM Pricing and Account Abstraction (AA)

“Code is Law, Mathematics is the Only House”

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1. Abstract

DeSix is a decentralized betting and prediction market protocol deeply built on the Base (L2) blockchain network. Addressing long-standing pain points in traditional digital prediction markets—such as centralized black-box operations, single-point fund custody crises, and high hidden fee skimming—DeSix fully integrates the Automated Market Maker (AMM) mechanism and Peer-to-Pool trading models of decentralized finance (DeFi).

Through a dynamic pricing engine driven automatically by smart contracts, a concentrated liquidity pool architecture, Chainlink VRF on-chain verifiable randomness, and ERC-4337/ERC-7715 Account Abstraction (AA) technology, DeSix establishes a trustless, low-friction digital prediction trading market with financial-grade security. The ultimate goal of the protocol is not to operate a traditional "casino," but to transition into a globally transparent "odds distributor," utilizing rigorous mathematical expectation and open-source code to completely end the era of house monopolies where players are destined to lose.

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2. Industry Background & Pain Points

In existing traditional digital digital betting and peripheral prediction markets, participants are in a structural disadvantage, facing severe asymmetric risks:

• Centralized Credit Crisis & Exit Risks: Fund custody and final interpretation of results are highly concentrated in the hands of centralized houses. When faced with unexpected winning outcomes or large player payouts, houses frequently default, shut down, or maliciously reject orders via internal manipulation.
• Fund In/Out Risk & Regulatory Freezes: When players execute fiat withdrawals and settlement of profits, they face high money laundering suspicion and regulatory controls. Bank cards are easily frozen, and the withdrawal pipeline is constantly eroded by multi-level agents taking cuts.
• Hidden & High Fee Skimming: To cover high default costs, multi-level agent commissions, and platform overheads, traditional houses secretly skim 10% to 20% of players' expected profits, resulting in a very low Return to Player (RTP).
• High Web3 User Barriers: Existing on-chain betting apps are heavily constrained by complex seed phrase storage and high-frequency private key signature popups. The high gas friction on-chain deters massive Web2 users accustomed to seamless experiences.

Core Comparison Matrix

Comparison Dimension	Traditional Peripheral Betting Markets	DeSix Decentralized Protocol
On-chain Payout Odds	40x - 45x (including principal)	Dynamic interpolation up to 49.00x (excluding intermediary friction, adjusted by real pool depth)
Theoretical Skimming Loss	8% - 20% hidden deductions	House edge strictly limited to 1.02% ~ 4.08% (ultra-low friction base, constrained by betting AMM engine)
Settlement Speed	Manual check, taking hours to days	Seconds-level automated payout (triggered by oracle consensus, dispatched directly by smart contracts)
Counterparty Default Risk	High (agent defaults, account bans)	Absolutely zero risk (collateral locked on-chain, code is law, no human intervention)

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3. Core Innovations & System Architecture

DeSix completely reconstructs the underlying logic of prediction markets, transitioning the traditional "betting against the house" into a Peer-to-Pool model where users interact with an algorithmic liquidity pool.

3.1 Assetization Logic & Full Derivative Mapping

• Binary Digital Asset Minting: In the DeSix protocol, every basic number outcome (1-49) is directly split and minted as an independent binary conditional token asset share. If the corresponding number is drawn, the on-chain settlement value of the asset instantly anchors to 1 USDC; otherwise, its value drops to zero.
• Complex Gameplay Packaging: The protocol maps all traditional derivative games (such as Odd/Even, Big/Small, Zodiac, Wave Colors) into trading combinations of these 49 underlying basic asset shares. For example, betting on "Odd/Even" is equivalent to the smart contract automatically purchasing 24 or 25 corresponding odd-numbered asset shares; betting on "Zodiac" packages the purchase of the 4 corresponding base number shares.

3.2 Betting AMM Engine

DeSix pioneers a dynamic pricing model based on asset liquidity heat inside the pool, abandoning rigid fixed-odds models.

• Dynamic Odds Generation & Linear Interpolation: The core contract implements a getDynamicOdds mechanism. Based on the real-time buy-side capital depth of each option in the liquidity pool, the algorithm automatically adjusts the odds. When a number is heavily bought, its odds decrease to mitigate exposure; conversely, cold numbers' odds increase, naturally balancing wins and losses. The contract executes precise linear interpolation based on real pool funding depth:

  • Completely Cold Option (0 buy-in): Enjoys the maximum odds of 49.00x.
  • Neutral Option (50% pool capital allocation): Real-time odds stabilize around 48.00x.
  • Highly Popular Option (reaches pool safety limits): Real-time odds auto-adjust down to 47.00x.

  (Note: The frontend UI displays the actual odds retrieved from the contract, defining "Cold $\ge$ 48.5x" and "Hot $\le$ 47.5x" in charts.)

Expectation Constraint & Order Locking

• Expectation Constraint: The linear interpolation model locks final transaction odds precisely within a dynamic band of 47.00x ~ 48.5x. This mechanism eliminates high traditional margins and secures the long-term solvency of the liquidity pool.
• Order-level Odds Locking: When users select multiple numbers, the core contract (DeSixCore.sol) writes the real-time odds at the exact instant of ordering into the order data structure (odds array). Payout is settled strictly using the locked odds.

• Anti-MEV Slippage Protection (minOdds): To prevent odds from fluctuating violently during high-concurrency bets, the frontend and SDK enforce a minOdds slippage check. If the execution odds drop below a user-defined threshold (supporting 0.5%, 1.0%, or 3.0% slippage rates) between clicking confirm and block inclusion, the contract immediately reverts the transaction and refunds the principal.

3.3 Concentrated Liquidity Model

• Narrow Range Capital Deployment: Drawing from the high-efficiency concept of Uniswap V3, DeSix avoids spreading liquidity across all price ranges and instead concentrates core USDC market-making capital within a very narrow price band of 0.018 to 0.022 USDC.
• Capital Efficiency Leap: This mechanism creates deep depth around the baseline odds on a small scale, allowing relatively small liquidity pools to support large payouts. High-volume traders experience minimal slippage loss.

3.4 Dynamic Solvency Guard & LP Protection

To attract liquidity providers (LPs), DeSix has built a robust risk defense system:

• Real-time Exposure Monitoring: The pool frontend and contracts monitor the TVL and exposure ratios. During active issues, LP principal withdrawals are locked to prevent runs.
• Dynamic Payout Capping: If the potential payout of a specific number reaches a safety threshold (e.g., potential maximum payout of a single number hits 50% of TVL), the system automatically blocks new orders on that number.
• Law of Large Numbers Mean Reversion: Due to the built-in mathematical edge, temporary LP deficits from extreme drawings will automatically revert to the mean over long cycles of high-frequency global trades.

3.5 Account Abstraction (AA) and Sponsored UX

To dismantle Web3 entry barriers and achieve a Web2-like experience, DeSix offers a seamless user journey:

• ZeroDev Integration: Supports one-click smart contract wallet creation using email, social logins, and Passkeys. The SDK integrates ZeroDev Kernel to package authorizations and bets into standard UserOperation bundles.
• Paymaster Gas Sponsorship: Gas fees are fully sponsored by the protocol's backend Paymaster, relieving users from holding native gas tokens.
• Session Keys Control: By configuring CallPolicy, the system issues restricted temporary session keys to the client (restricted to approvals and placing bets). Users bet with a single click without repetitive popups, keeping core wallet assets secure.
• Client Recovery Pipelines: Highlighting robust error handling, the client alerts users immediately if balances are low or gas sponsorship fails. Bet slips render loading animations during pending states to prevent double-clicks, and prompt for re-authorization if sessions expire.

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4. Decentralized Oracles & Consensus

Absolute fairness is the lifeline of prediction markets. DeSix uses a decentralized verification and anti-collusion loop. The core smart contracts (DeSixDrawManager.sol and DeSixCore.sol) enforce a tight 5-step automated on-chain drawing and recovery lifecycle:

graph TD
    A[推进开奖状态 - Drawing] --> B[多源独立节点提交 - Collecting]
    B --> C[3/5 拜占庭容错共识 - Consensus]
    C --> D[乐观预言机挑战期 - Challenge Period 1 Hour]
    D -->|无人挑战| E[无感清算派彩 - Finalized & Settled]
    D -->|发起挑战 - 质押 100 DESIX| F[进入争议投票 - Dispute]
    F -->|挑战成功| G[Void 状态并原路退回本金]
    F -->|挑战失败| E

1. Drawing State Activation: Once a real-world lottery completes, the platform triggers the contract to advance the market from closed (Closed) to drawing (Drawing).
2. Multi-source Submissions: 5 independent registered oracle nodes (each staking $\ge$ 5,000 USDC of LP assets) query official draw channels and submit their findings on-chain.
3. 3/5 Byzantine Fault Tolerant Consensus: The contract aggregates node reports. A consensus is declared only when 3 or more nodes submit identical numbers, preventing single-point oracle corruption.
4. Optimistic Challenge Period: Instead of paying out immediately, the consensus winning number is locked in a 1-hour public challenge period. If any observer discovers fake winning numbers or node collusion, they can stake 100 DESIX to trigger a on-chain Dispute. The dispute is then put to a decentralized voting process by token holders.
5. Automated Settlement: Once the challenge period expires without dispute, the smart contract settles all payouts directly to winning wallets.

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5. Tokenomics

DeSix has designed a sustainable token model to incentivize active trading, sharing, and liquidity provisioning.

5.1 Token Supply & Protocol Fees

• Native Token: DeSix ($DESIX)
• Total Supply: 66,000,000 (Fixed cap, no inflation)
• Protocol Fees: A low 0.3% fee is collected on each bet to sustain the ecosystem and fund buyback-and-burn operations.

5.2 Multi-Mining System & Value Accrual

To foster community governance and share protocol growth, 0.15% (50% of total fees) is routed to the mining pool to reward contributors:

• Liquidity Mining: Yields $DESIX tokens to LPs, stacked atop the AMM's mathematical edge.
• Trade-to-Earn: Users claim $DESIX rebates on every bet. This subsidy offsets the low transaction fees and boosts the net return rate of players.
• Share-to-Earn: Promoters and referrers receive real-time commissions based on invitee trading volumes (the contract processes referrers automatically on-chain, routing 0.5% of transaction volumes to the inviter's wallet).

5.3 Governance & Security

$DESIX token holders benefit from TVL growth and govern key parameters. Holding tokens is also a requirement to raise disputes or vote on oracle challenges.

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6. Global Growth Strategy

• Regulatory & Withdraw Protections: For Southeast Asian prediction hubs, DeSix emphasizes "instant settlement, zero card freezes." By routing trades entirely via USDC, users bypass traditional banking controls and banking freeze risks.
• Parlay Bets: For players seeking outsized payouts, the protocol supports atomic parlay betting (e.g., linking specific numbers with zodiacs), leveraging 单次 odds across multiple issues to generate multipliers of 1000x or 5000x.

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7. Protocol Roadmap

timeline
    title DeSix Protocol Roadmap
    Phase 1 : Infrastructure : Base Sepolia integrations : AA Smart Wallets : Betting AMM & minOdds checks
    Phase 2 : Aggregation & Cross-chain : Multi-oracle validation看板 : Cross-chain assets (CCIP/LayerZero) : Sports & elections markets
    Phase 3 : Governance (DAO) : Launch DeSix DAO governance : Dual LP profit engines : Expansion to global lotteries

• Phase 1: Infrastructure —— Base Sepolia testnet integrations, account abstraction (AA) smart wallets, dynamic AMM engines, minOdds slippage protections, and session key authorization panels.
• Phase 2: Cross-chain Aggregation —— Deploy multi-oracle validation sets and UI verification dashboards; integrate cross-chain assets (via CCIP/LayerZero), and introduce sports, elections, and financial predictions.
• Phase 3: Governance (DAO) & Lottery Expansion —— Distribute DeSix tokens to trigger DAO parameters (fee rates, solvency limits). Expand the unified liquidity pool to support global lottery formats (such as Mega Millions, Powerball).

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8. Conclusion

DeSix is not inventing a new form of digital betting; rather, it uses blockchain technology to reform traditional opaque markets into transparent prediction asset trading networks.

Through dynamic AMM pricing, slippage interventions, account abstraction, and transparent mining tokenomics, DeSix addresses security, cost, and UX bottlenecks. Non-custodial math models will end the era of centralized house monopolies, establishing DeSix as a key prediction market infrastructure. In the DeSix network, code is law, and math is the ultimate house that never defaults.